No-deal – key dates
19 October 2019
In September, parliament passed legislation designed to prevent the UK leaving the EU without a deal on 31 October. Whilst this bill has mandated Boris Johnson to seek an extension to the Brexit deadline, is does not rule out a no-deal Brexit at a later date.
31 October 2019
This remains the date on which the UK is currently scheduled to leave the EU. If the EU does not agree to any extension and a deal has not passed Parliament, the UK will leave the EU without a deal. Downing Street says this will happen ‘no ifs no buts’, even if parliament votes against it again. Brussels has reportedly been told that renegotiation is unlikely, while it has stated several times itself that it is unwilling to change the deal currently on offer. While short-term disruption is likely (though much depends on UK government preparedness), the full scale of immediate impacts will be felt in the subsequent weeks and months.
31 January 2020 (or end of extension period)
Parliament has suggested this as the date to which the Brexit deadline should be extended. If an extension is granted to this date and a deal has still not passed, the UK will leave without a deal.
Immediately after a no-deal Brexit
It is possible that the chancellor could deliver a no-deal emergency budget in a bid to reduce the impact, while emergency negotiations over the Irish border and cooperation over medicines, fissile materials and security intelligence could take place with the EU.
Plans currently in place to reduce the impact of no deal will fall away, leaving the UK economy to the full impact of WTO rules.